Category: Fintech

Fundstrat bullish about Bitcoin for 2019

On By mehranmuslimiblogIn Bitcoin, Blockchain, Ethereum, FintechLeave a comment

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Fundstrat Global Advisors, co-founded by Tom Lee, has just published a report claiming that Bitcoin prices will reach $36,000 by the end of 2019. How has it arrived at such a bold prediction? Fundstrat says the answer is mining costs.

Fundstrat’s Quantamental Strategist, Sam Doctor, analysed the relationship between Bitcoin mining costs and price, to come up with the prediction that the price range will fall somewhere between $20,000 and $64,000 next year.

He based his calculations on a Bitcoin Price to Mining Breakeven Cost Metric, known as P/BE, which he claims has “proven a reliable long-term support level.”

A statement from Tom Lee, published on Twitter, said: “We expect the mining economy to grow over the next several years, and project a BTC price of ~$36,000 by year end 2019 based on the historical average 1.8x P/BE multiple.”

The Twitter statement also points out that the rise in electricity costs is slowing and use of power is becoming more efficient as larger rigs with a higher hash power per watt, are now appearing. Plus, mining operations are getting bigger, bringing the benefits of scalability to the scenario.

However, he did point out that there was one risk to the prediction: “a material shift in the trajectory of hash power could change the P/BE support level of BTC price.”

It is interesting that Tom Lee’s personal prediction for BTC was $25,000 by the end of 2018 and both Lee and Fundstrat have been bullish about BTC this year. They also issued a statement in April, saying that 82% of institutional investors believe the price had now bottomed out.

If you own BTC and both Fundstrat and Lee are correct than it will be worth holding on to them for some time to come.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Crypto tribes threaten power of unity

On By mehranmuslimiblogIn Bitcoin, Blockchain, Ethereum, FintechLeave a comment

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The crypto sphere is becoming a little like a football league table. Owners decide to give their allegiance to a particular ‘team’: let’s say Bitcoin is Real Madrid, and that’s your main team, and your friend likes ETH, let’s call it Arsenal. However, is being part of the Bitcoin fan club, and therefore competing with ETH supporters a healthy way to develop the potential of cryptocurrency?

People have a tendency to take a ‘tribal’ approach to pretty much everything, from dietary choices, to coffee brands, to football teams. But, it isn’t very helpful for crypto. Here’s why.

The cypherpunks had a beautiful idea

Privacy, free speech, and the ability to act as an autonomous individual are increasingly under attack, but decentralisation can protect these. Let us not forget that blockchain technology arose out of a community of cypherpunks who wanted more freedoms. Yet, it looks as though the crypto community now is just going to bow its head to the centralised institutions and retreat into the same old narrow-minded worldview.

As Kent Barton describes it in Medium: “The prevailing question has insidiously morphed from “how can we make the world a better place?” to “how can we defeat other blockchain platforms?”

He also argues that tribalism in the crypto sphere, “distracts the community from the crucial work of building scalable technologies that people will want to use.” And he adds, “Personal attacks and outright trolling make the environment uncomfortable or even untenable for newcomers.”

Social media channels have developed an “Us vs Them” discourse and influencers, like rocks stars, with their adoring fans fight it out with other influencers for the Top Dog spot.

Let’s show some respect

Measured and respectful discussion about the merits of various cryptocurrencies have been replaced with increasingly emotions attacks form the ‘opposition.’

Bartons says: “To an outsider, it must seem ludicrous to watch countless smart minds working on blockchain technology — developers, entrepreneurs, and other enthusiasts gifted with an ability to think outside the box and see a vision for a better future — descend into internecine bickering.”

And all the while the team battles are at the forefront of activity, the less time is being devoted to advancing the blockchain, and it is probably fair to say that this boils down to it being all about the money; not about cryptocurrency itself, but making millions and billions of fiat currency out of cryptocurrency. And that takes everyone back to the status quo before the blockchain emerged as tool for a real revolution that could make the world a better place and take power away from those who have had control of it for too long.

Say goodbye to the zero-sum game

Tribalism in crypto, particularly the desire to see one platform emerge as the winner at the expense of another will mean that we continue to be the slaves of power-holders, rather than channelling the power of the blockchain so that the people can reclaim power for themselves – at least some of it.

We will miss this opportunity by only supporting one team – it’s time to be an O.G. crypto fan and support the whole blockchain ecosystem rather than continue this zero-sum game.

 

 

 

What decision will the SEC make about Ethereum?

On By mehranmuslimiblogIn Ethereum, Fintech, Governments, ICO, Initial Coin OfferingsLeave a comment

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This week, Monday May 7th to be exact, the Security & Exchange Commission (SEC) started a series of meetings to decide whether Ethereum 9ETH) is a security. At the moment we’re not sure how the decision will turn out, but let’s think about what the SEC will be considering and how it might affect ETH owners.

If you’re an ETH owner, you might expect to see two extremes as a result of any decision: an unexpected high, or a devastating low. For example, if ETH is considered a security by the U.S. government, then there may be a negative, short-term price reaction. However, because Ethereum’s underlying technology, is borderless and does not depend on the opinion one country’s regulatory committee, its long-term prospects should be unaffected. And, if it is decided that it is not a security, then it is very likely that the long-term prospects of the technology and its financial standing within the community will prosper.

If no decision is made about the status of ETH we might see a major upsurge in the market, especially as Buterin and his developers have been talking up new solutions for scaling in recent days and while this might be a short-term uplift in the market, there is also reason to think it might become a long-term trend.

What is Ethereum saying?

For it’s part, ETH founders are sure that it is not a security. Joseph Lubin, one of the co-founders said prior to the SEC meeting this week: “We spent a tremendous amount of time with lawyers in the US and in other countries, and are extremely comfortable that it is not a security; it never was a security… many regulators that matter understand what Ethereum is.”

Will the SEC agree with Lubin’s assessment, and with the way other regulators claim to see it – that I what we’re waiting to find out.

 

 

Is this the third industrial revolution?

On By mehranmuslimiblogIn AI, Blockchain, FintechLeave a comment

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We are standing at a moment in history where we are about to witness a third industrial revolution brought about by the fast increasing adoption of digital technology by industry after industry.

We have already seen the Internet deliver a second industrial revolution in the postal and telecoms industries, the publishing world and the music industry to name just a few that are extremely obvious.

We also seen new disruptive business models from companies like Uber and Airbnb. This has been called “innovation through creative disruption” by economist Joseph Schumpeter.

I agree with Matthias Stettler of greenmatch AG, who says in a recent Medium article that although there is a tendency for some to focus on the risks apparently associated with the speed at which the digital world is taking over our lives, there is a lot more that needs to be said about the opportunities it offers.

There is the Internet of Things as well as the Internet of Assets, which Stettler suggests combine the real and virtual worlds. And in this realm, it is the Fintechs that are seeing the opportunity to disrupt the conventional financial services, a sector that hasn’t had a shake-up since the first industrial revolution in the 19th century. In this respect, it seems rational to say that it was due for a change.

One thing that fascinates me about Stettler’s view is his argument that what we are seeing now is another industrial revolution. We know that the first one changed society dramatically with the advent of the steam train, followed by the invention of the telephone and so on.

He argues that we most definitely can call it a third industrial revolution, and says: “Considering that an industrial revolution occurs whenever a new primary energy source starts being used (keyword renewable energies), and that new communication technologies (the internet) emerge and changes in mobility (autonomous driving) are involved: then the answer is yes!”

He also points out that robotics and AI are making rapid progress, plus the new technology is decentralised and has virtually no marginal costs. It will also impact on society in every way. Already we are seeing a move towards one that is less divided by the notions of left wing and right wing: these are being replaced by “liberal-global and national-conservative,” as he puts it.

What personally interests me most is this: “Industrial revolutions are times of tremendous opportunities for founders of new businesses.” This third one will be blockchain-backed I would predict and we will see some interesting new products in the fintech arena in particular.