6 Tech Predictions for 2020

The tech world is constantly changing, and as we enter 2020 and a new decade, we will see even greater differences than we have seen over the previous ten years. Tech experts, who have their finger on the pulse, and are astute when it comes to making predictions about the coming decade in technology, have been discussing the key changes at various conference events worldwide, and I’ve selected six that I think are the most interesting, and significant for those working in tech.

We want more privacy

Privacy has been a major issue over the last two years, highlighted by the Facebook/Cambridge Analytica scandal. Consumers are going to pay more attention to how their data is collected, and how it is stored. As a consequence, more businesses will be looking for cloud-based solutions with privacy features that fully comply with the law and fair consumer practices.

Biometrics will produces more wearables

People are already wearing FitBits, but in the next few years we will probably see more interactive data tracking using heart rate and brainwaves for example, and using them to power personal experiences. One suggestion is that when you lower your heart rate, you’ll see a scene on your screen change colour and sharpness. Positive thoughts may do the same. In other words, we will be using more augmented or virtual reality. Sarah Hill, CEO at HEALium, sees it as a new form of meditation. She says, “These new kinds of meditation are harnessing the power of your body’s own electricity via your wearables to allow the user to feel content in ways that have never been done before.”

Recession-proofed credit

Few people will ever forget the last recession, so as rumours of another one filter through, more people are trying to prevent slipping into a bad credit rating situation by using credit-building fintech tools to bolster their credit scores in advance.”

More AI in publishing

Monetising content has always been an issue for online publishers, and this decade should present them with new solutions, such using machine learning and AI to predict readers’ specific interests and how likely they are to subscribe.

The advance of 5G

Many are agreed that this is going to be a 5G decade. It will probably evolve rapidly and we will see more enterprise applications, plus investment in 5G technology will rise significantly.

The assistant in your car

Niko Vuori, CEO of Drivetime, says, “It is estimated that there will be eight billion digital voice assistants in use by 2023. As voice assistants continue to dominate the home, the in-vehicle usage has remained relatively limited to navigation, despite being one of the only environments that truly requires a hands-free experience.” Expect to have much more voice-assistant technology in your car.

There are many more tech changes to come. What prediction have you seen that appeals to you the most?

What Might The Bitcoin Halving Do For You?

It’s a question that I’m sure many Bitocin owners are asking. In around 90 days from now on 8th May, Bitcoin’s mining reward will be cut in half (that’s what a ‘halving’ means) and crypto commentators believe that it could trigger some significant price activity, and boost the BTC price skywards.

Currently there are approximately 18 million Bitcoin in circulation out of a total of 21 million. But, thanks to the halving protocol, this limit won’t be reached in the near future. Satoshi Nakamoto programmed the Bitcoin network protocol so that a halving would take place every four years, or every 210,000 blocks, and cut miners rewards in half. The idea being that this makes producing more coins more difficult.

This may seem counterintuitive, as miners are incentivised by the rewards. As Edith Muthoni, chief editor at Learnbonds.com told Coinrivet: “This brings us into a seeming conundrum: if miners will no longer receive block rewards (or too little), will they continue mining? What will be their motivation to stay on? What does this mean for the network and Bitcoin?”

The impact on Bitcoin mining

Once upon a time people at home could make some money from Bitcoin mining, but that ended some time ago. However, as we approach this halving, there is a serious question to be answered about how the medium and large-sized mining operations will fare.

There are fewer than three million Bitcoin left to mine, and the hash rate is hitting all-time highs. Given the cutting of rewards, it would seem that the effect on mining at least would be negative. Steve Tsou, CEO of RRMine, a Bitcoin cloud mining operation has gloomy view: “The halving in 2020 will have great impacts on Bitcoin miners: 1) Miners with low mining efficiency will be forced to pause and re-evaluate their business operations. 2) Digital mining is becoming the racetrack for giant international companies because they have more advanced machines and cheaper sources of electricity.”

Tsou’s sentiments are echoed by a number of others in the sector, including Alex Lam, one of China’s most prolific miners and CEO of RockX digital assets. He said “The next Bitcoin halving is likely to result in mining profitability decreasing significantly in the short term.”

However, depending on the price of Bitcoin on 8th May, miners’ profitability may not be so dramatically affected, at least in the short term. If the Bitcoin price rises substantially afterwards, then miners may be able to sustain their profits. A price fall, on the other hand, could see some go out of business.

The impact on Bitcoin’s price

Unless you are a miner, how many Bitcoin owners can honestly say that they are concerned about the impact on mining. What they want to know is the halving’s impact on price.

This is not the first time that a halving has occurred. The BTC price stood at $12 when the mining reward was first cut in November 2012, and stood at $652 at the time of the second halving in July 2016. Of course, as you remember, the following year brought us that sensational bull run, driving Bitcoin to $20,000. Weiss Ratings, which analyses the impact of halving’s on price, said: “So, does the Bitcoin halving help drive prices higher? Absolutely. The only question now is how high will #BTC go this time around?”

Jimmy Nguyen, president of the Bitcoin Association commented: “Some people expect the coin price to magically increase before the halving and help cover the 50% fewer coins. Even if there is some price increase, it is doubtful coin prices will double from now through April or May 2020. So mining will most likely be less profitable after the halving than it currently is.”

Ultimately, what we are likely to see when the Bitcoin halving happens is this: it will have a major impact on mining in the short and long term. Furthermore, we’ll see smaller, less sustainable operations give way to larger mining farms with access to low-cost energy.

Miners, like Bitcoin owners, will be hoping for a hike in the Bitcoin price, because that is the key to ensuring profitable mining, as well as profits for investors.

Google’s bitcoin war is dumbing down

As you are probably aware, Google has a fraught relationship with Bitcoin (BTC) in particular, and cryptocurrencies in general. It’s a problem, because YouTube, which Google owns, is awash with videos about digital assets. What we have seen is that whenever possible, Google has tried to raise barricades against the oncoming tide of crypto information, in all its forms, including apps and websites, which has caused crypto fans to accuse the media giant of censorship.

We have only just begun 2020, and already Google has lashed out by removing Bitcoin Blast, a BTC rewards game from the Google Play store, on the gorunds that it uses “deceptive practices.” According to Billy Bambrough at Forbes, Bitcoin Blast was available on the Apple app store on 24th January, but was removed a week later. Apple said that it violated certain of its app policies, but said it could come back if it “can be brought up to code.”

Daniel Rice, cofounder and chief technology officer at Bling, the make of Bitcoin Blast, said in a post, “We were not removed for being involved with cryptocurrency,” but added, “it’s also possible that Bitcoin Blast will never return to an Apple platform.”

The irony is that Bitcoin Blast’s users rather liked the puzzle game that rewards users with bitcoin-redeemable loyalty points and boasts a 4.5 rating from some 20,000 ratings and 13,000 reviews. They complained to Google about the sudden removal of their entertainment. And this had a positive effect. Although, Bling, did have to make a public plea for support, and it was only after this happened that Google reversed its decision.

It isn’t the first time that Google has waded reversed a decision regarding a crypto-related app or site. It tried to ban most of the bitcoin-related content creators from YouTube, only to face a backlash from users that forced a change of heart.

Not long after this, Google suspended the popular MetaMask crypto wallet and mobile browser app backed by Ethereum incubator ConsenSys from the Play Store, only to eventually reinstate it.

This behaviour is rather odd, and it is no wonder that companies such as Bling are questioning what their future relationship they might have with Google, if any at all. Bling’s CEO, Amy Wan wrote, “Google’s suspension cited their ‘deceptive behavior’ policy … but did not state exactly what behavior Google thought was deceptive,” and she advices other businesses to avoid putting all their products on a Google platform. Furthermore, she said that Google couldn’t answer the question regarding what was “deceptive” about the Bitcoin Blast app.

As Billy Bambrough says, Google’s “twitchy trigger finger and the speed at which the ban hammer falls is, understandably, making people nervous.”

Certainly, it needs to rethink its battle strategy, because at the moment, it looks like every action is a simplistic knee-jerk reaction, rather than a well-considered approach based on evidence.

PayPal doubles down on P2P payments

For rather a long time, PayPal has been inextricably wedded to eBay, the mammoth auction site. However, that relationship is in a state of flux, and this has prompted PayPal to look to new partnerships that may take its service in a different direction.

To start with it has paid $4 billion to buy Honey, a shopping rewards platform, and now it is looking at Venmo, a peer-to-peer mobile payments service. Essentially the company offers a digital wallet that allows you to make and share payments with friends. For example, you can easily split a restaurant bill or a cab fare using the Venmo app.

Venmo is distinctly different to PayPal, and yet it complements it, which is no doubt why PayPal’s board considered it such an attractive proposition. By having one partner that covers day-to-day purchases, whilst PayPal covers payments for larger goods, or payments for freelance work, and other types of transfers, it means that together, they more or less have a large swathe of the market covered.

The Venmo app has been showing considerable growth as well. According to its fourth quarter results, published at the end of January, “Venmo processed $29 billion in volume for the quarter, growing 56%. And for the year, volume increased to $102 billion,” PayPal’s CEO, Dan Schulman reported. He also said that it ended the year with 52 million active accounts and revenue in excess of $450 million.

It has grown significantly since its third-quarter figures, which showed it had 40 million active accounts. By the end of 2019 it also, according to PayPal, exceeded a projected $100 billion in payment volume.

How has this happened? Well, PayPal points to Venmo’s deal with Synchrony Bank, which has allowed it to add a credit card to its offering. Plus, Visa will be Venmo’s exclusive network partner for the Venmo credit card, Schulman has revealed.

Future plans for Venmo, that it is predicted will boost growth, include Venmo Rewards, a loyalty program it will run with selected merchants. Schulman told Donna Fuscaldo at Forbes magazine: “Last year, we saw brands like Netflix, Pepsi and Chipotle use Venmo payouts to reward their customers and pay them via Venmo. We are excited to introduce new monetizable value-added services to our Venmo platform over the course of 2020.”

What we can conclude from this is that PayPal’s new direction is heavily skewed towards the peer-to-peer (P2P) payment market, where Venmo is the market leader. That makes sense, and it’s surprising it hasn’t moved this way sooner. Here’s why. According to eMarketer, P2P mobile transactions will reach $396.48 billion this year, up 27.9% from $309.95 billion in 2019. Moreover, it is expected that will be 73.8 million P2P payment users by the end of 2020. And by 2030, who knows how big that user base will be!