Will a boom follow Covid-19?

Many people must be wondering what the rest of this decade might look like after such a disastrous start to the 2020s. Can we look back at history and see a trend? For example, the 1920s that followed World War I and the Spanish flu epidemic was a Golden Age when economic growth surged, society relaxed a lot of its restrictions, women cut their hair for the first time, all of it captured and portrayed in F. Scott Fitzgerald’s ‘The Great Gatsby’. Now there’s a book that has never gone out of fashion.

This week I read an article by Rich Karlgard in Forbes that is written from the optimist’s viewpoint. He believes there are four possible reasons that the 2020s might be another 1920s, although he does so with caution.

Digital tech will accelerate

There is no doubt that the pandemic made all things digital vastly more important. Otherwise, we wouldn’t have seen so much change in such a short time. Karlgard first points to the fact that back in 2017, Diane Greene, then the Google Cloud CEO, told a Forbes audience that the rate of digital technology progress was accelerating rapidly. But that does not necessarily bring productivity along with it, because the business model needs to change for that to happen. Then along came Covid-19, which forced a rapid business change. Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella has said that five years of digital transformation had taken place in six months, all because businesses needed to work smarter, faster and be more nimble.

Artificial Intelligence is now scalable

A number of digital technologies reached maturity at the same time: cheaper cloud computing, universal digital computing and faster telecoms with the arrival of 5G. And then there is Artificial Intelligence (AI). Karlgard says this will be the decade of enterprise AI, and that’s spot on. Prior to 2020 using AI was hard, labour-intensive, expensive work, but now it is very much easier to use and it is going to transform many areas of industry, from logistics to customer service.

We’re awash with capital

Although it may not always be obvious the world is swimming in capital right now, which makes it easier for start-ups to get the funding they need. Investors have their eyes on digital technology and AI products, because as Karlgard says, “thy know they are game changers.” He adds, “These will disrupt business models and markets, and power enormous fortunes.”

Revolutions in the physical world

We are not talking about physical revolutions here; but revolutions in the way aspects of the physical world are being changed by technology. For example, autonomous trucks don’t need to take rest breaks, drone cameras can improve agricultural crop yields, and gene sequencing combined with AI can create personalised medical treatments.

However, whilst all these may lead to a boom after what feels like a bust, if we look back at the 1920s, we must note that while cities grew and grew, rural areas were not invited to the party, creating a divide that lingers to this day. The 1920s also experienced a stock crash in 1921 that almost buried the decade, followed by the more famous Wall St crash of 1929. So, even the Golden Age had its downsides. Still, after our experience of 2020-21, one that has been globally shared, let’s focus on optimism and the way in which the Covid-19 pandemic has accelerated digital technology for our benefit and forced us to be more agile.

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