Will a boom follow Covid-19?

Many people must be wondering what the rest of this decade might look like after such a disastrous start to the 2020s. Can we look back at history and see a trend? For example, the 1920s that followed World War I and the Spanish flu epidemic was a Golden Age when economic growth surged, society relaxed a lot of its restrictions, women cut their hair for the first time, all of it captured and portrayed in F. Scott Fitzgerald’s ‘The Great Gatsby’. Now there’s a book that has never gone out of fashion.

This week I read an article by Rich Karlgard in Forbes that is written from the optimist’s viewpoint. He believes there are four possible reasons that the 2020s might be another 1920s, although he does so with caution.

Digital tech will accelerate

There is no doubt that the pandemic made all things digital vastly more important. Otherwise, we wouldn’t have seen so much change in such a short time. Karlgard first points to the fact that back in 2017, Diane Greene, then the Google Cloud CEO, told a Forbes audience that the rate of digital technology progress was accelerating rapidly. But that does not necessarily bring productivity along with it, because the business model needs to change for that to happen. Then along came Covid-19, which forced a rapid business change. Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella has said that five years of digital transformation had taken place in six months, all because businesses needed to work smarter, faster and be more nimble.

Artificial Intelligence is now scalable

A number of digital technologies reached maturity at the same time: cheaper cloud computing, universal digital computing and faster telecoms with the arrival of 5G. And then there is Artificial Intelligence (AI). Karlgard says this will be the decade of enterprise AI, and that’s spot on. Prior to 2020 using AI was hard, labour-intensive, expensive work, but now it is very much easier to use and it is going to transform many areas of industry, from logistics to customer service.

We’re awash with capital

Although it may not always be obvious the world is swimming in capital right now, which makes it easier for start-ups to get the funding they need. Investors have their eyes on digital technology and AI products, because as Karlgard says, “thy know they are game changers.” He adds, “These will disrupt business models and markets, and power enormous fortunes.”

Revolutions in the physical world

We are not talking about physical revolutions here; but revolutions in the way aspects of the physical world are being changed by technology. For example, autonomous trucks don’t need to take rest breaks, drone cameras can improve agricultural crop yields, and gene sequencing combined with AI can create personalised medical treatments.

However, whilst all these may lead to a boom after what feels like a bust, if we look back at the 1920s, we must note that while cities grew and grew, rural areas were not invited to the party, creating a divide that lingers to this day. The 1920s also experienced a stock crash in 1921 that almost buried the decade, followed by the more famous Wall St crash of 1929. So, even the Golden Age had its downsides. Still, after our experience of 2020-21, one that has been globally shared, let’s focus on optimism and the way in which the Covid-19 pandemic has accelerated digital technology for our benefit and forced us to be more agile.

Are you underwhelmed by 5G?

5G has promised us speeds that would allow us to stream a 4K resolution video while on the move. We were promised that it would provide super fast downloads, and many of the biggest telecoms networks have made some variation on the claim of having the fastest, best, or most expansive 5G network available. Yet, in the USA, most 5G users have been underwhelmed, writes AJ Dellinger in Forbes.

Speedcheck research sheds light on how regulatory decisions, geo-political tensions, and suboptimal network configurations have resulted in 5G download speeds that were only 2.7 times faster than 4G speeds. This is rather less than the 100x faster as promised. Worse still, Speedcheck states “in 1 out of 8 US cities where 5G was available last year, 4G-connected users could browse the Internet faster than 5G-connected ones, leaving many 5G-phone owners puzzled.” It adds, “A more in-depth analysis of the same data reveals that 5G users experienced substantially faster connections in only 69% of the cities where the new technology was deployed in 2020, and in the other 31% of cities, “the new cellular technology was either slower or only moderately faster than 4G.” These results certainly don’t encourage anyone to buy a 5G- enabled phone just yet.

Why is 5G not delivering on its promises?

In the USA regulatory decisions about 5G came late to launching the necessary C-band frequencies (that is airwaves between 3.4GHz and 4.2GHz) which are key to the technology. So the US networks had to rely on lower frequencies, which work over long distances but deliver slow speeds.

Then there was the issue with Chinese-owned Huawei, which America deemed a national security risk. This meant the deployment of 5G was put on hold in many places, as networks had to find other suppliers, which delayed the commercial launch of 5G.

Lastly, there were sub-optimal network configurations. The majority of the initial 5G deployments in the US were Non-Stand-Alone (NSA), meaning that the new networks were aided by existing 4G infrastructures and this resulted in a 4G-like experience for consumers.

However, the US may experience a turning point in 2021 as the US Federal Commission Communications (FCC) completed a spectrum auction that will provide an injection of highly desired C-band spectrum (that is a mid-frequency) for 5G deployment in the country. These new frequencies should finally bring the dramatic shift in 5G performance – fingers crossed, phones at the ready!

The practical uses of AI and 5G

There has been, and continues to be, a lot of talk about the advantages of artificial intelligence (AI) and 5G. Not everyone is convinced, and there is a swathe of people who fear both technologies, although often for different reasons. Perhaps they would be more convinced about their benefits if they grasped the practical uses.

Smart automation is one of them. Automation’s aim is to reduce human error, as well as maximise productivity. In the case of ‘smart automation’, AI provides the ‘smarts’ by analyzing a series of tasks and streamlining them. By combining this with 5G, mobile service providers would be able to “offer simpler activations, higher performance and the rapid deployment of new services, according to Will Townsend and Moor Insights. This would increase revenues and provide an enhanced user experience, thanks to more reliable network connections.

Townsend also believes that AI would “enable network operators to move from reactive to proactive issue resolution.” The technology would allow them to evaluate huge amounts of data when troubleshooting any network anomalies, while “5G should enable networks to better handle these predictive functions’ complexity and support significantly more connected devices.” Townsend also thinks, “one of the most significant impacts of AI in mobile networks will be the reduction of subscriber churn.” That is interesting, as building and retaining a customer base is critical for telecoms companies.

Both AI and 5G will undoubtedly speed up digital transformation in businesses. The need for this has become more apparent in 2020, with legions of employees working from home. As a result, the networks have been under significant pressure “from a scalability, reliability and security perspective.” What has ensued is connectivity infrastructure providers are embracing AIOps for its potential to supercharge DevOps and SecOps.

Lastly, AI and 5G in both the consumer and enterprise markets will vastly transform the user experience. For example, “AI has the potential to reduce the number of subscriber service choices, presenting the most relevant ones based on past behaviour,” Townsend says. This will in turn build greater loyalty among subscribers, as well as more monetization opportunities for the operator.

In conclusion, there is a great deal of synergy between AI and 5G. It will mean mobile networks are not simple the means of access to data. AI promises to also “improve new device provisioning, deliver high application and connectivity performance, accelerate digital transformation and provide exceptional user experiences.” As Townsend says: it’s a win-win for everyone.